North Livermore Transfer of Development Credits Program
City of Livermore Planning Department
Livermore, California July 2003 to November 2004
The transfer of development credits is a complex mechanism for redirecting development away from
environmentally sensitive areas. While a number of programs have been initiated around the country, few have
used sound economic analysis to determine the actual cost of the credits, or the impact of having to purchase
credits on future development. As part of a team led by the Solimar Group, Strategic Economics was one of the
first to apply such rigor to a transfer of development credits program. This process involved evaluating the value of
various types of land within the protected area based on such factors as parcel size, access to water, and current
land use to determine the value of a credit. Development scenarios were then constructed for various ‘receiving
areas’ within the City of Livermore. Strategic Economics used pro forma analyses to test the impact of having to
purchase development credits on project feasibility. The analysis found that most receiver sites in Livermore had
insufficient demand to warrant development that would be financially feasible when development credits were
purchased. One of the most sensitive variables in the model was developer rate of return. Strategic Economics
worked closely with the development community to ensure that return assumptions were both reasonable from the
community’s perspective and acceptable to the developers.